Winter sun is sold as one category and contains at least three different holidays. Sorting them by flight time from northern Europe makes the choice much clearer than sorting them by price.
Under five hours: reliably warm
- The Canary Islands — the only genuinely dependable winter warmth within short-haul range, at around twenty degrees in January. Seven islands with real differences between them: Lanzarote for extraordinary volcanic landscape, La Gomera and La Palma for walking, Tenerife for range, Fuerteventura for beaches. Which island.
- Madeira — mild all year, subtropical, and the levada walks are the reason to go: level irrigation paths cut across mountainsides, hundreds of kilometres of them. Almost no beach. Madeira or the Azores.
- Morocco — Marrakech in December is pleasant by day and genuinely cold at night; the desert is colder still. Not a swimming holiday, an excellent city-and-mountains one. Planning a first trip.
- Egypt — December and January are the ideal months for Luxor and Aswan, where summer is punishing and there is no shade at the sites. The Red Sea coast is warm enough to swim. A Nile cruise.
The honest limit of short-haul winter sun. Southern Spain, Portugal and Sicily are mild in December, not warm — pleasant for walking a city, too cold for a beach. If the picture in your head involves swimming in the sea, only the Canaries and the Red Sea deliver it inside five hours.
Long-haul: properly tropical
- The Caribbean — the dry season begins, and late November to mid-December is the value window before Christmas pricing arrives.
- Thailand and Vietnam — the cool dry season, which is the best time of year to be there.
- The Gulf — Dubai and Oman in winter are at their most pleasant, and Oman in particular is a far more interesting country than its neighbour's marketing suggests.
- Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean — southern-hemisphere summer, so this is their high season and priced accordingly.
The Christmas pricing cliff
Everything above has two prices: before about 18 December and after it. European school terms end between the 18th and 23rd depending on the country, and flights and accommodation either side of those dates are the most expensive of the year.
The gap is not marginal. The same Canary Islands week can cost twice as much over Christmas as in the first fortnight of December, for identical weather. If your dates can move at all, moving them earlier is the single largest saving available in winter travel.
And if they cannot move — because it is a family Christmas — then book it now rather than optimising. Holiday-period inventory does not soften; it sells out and the remainder gets dearer.
January and February are cheaper again
Once the holidays clear, January and February are the two cheapest months to fly of the whole year. The weather in the Canaries, Egypt and the Caribbean is essentially identical to Christmas week at a fraction of the price.
If the trip is about warmth rather than about a date, waiting three weeks past New Year is worth more than any deal you will find.
The short version
- Inside five hours, only the Canaries and the Red Sea are warm enough to swim in December.
- Southern Spain and Portugal are mild, not warm. Good for cities, not for beaches.
- Egypt is at its best now — December and January are the ideal Nile months.
- Prices turn hard from about 18 December. Moving your dates earlier beats any discount.
- If you must travel over Christmas, book now — that inventory only gets dearer.
- January and February have the same weather and the cheapest fares of the year.