From about the third week of November the travel industry runs a fortnight of promotions, and the volume makes judgement difficult on purpose. The useful question is not how big the discount looks. It is whether the seller has a reason to actually discount.
The test
Does the thing have fixed capacity and an expiry date?
A cabin on a specific sailing, a seat on a specific flight and a room on a specific night are all perishable — unsold, they are worth nothing the moment the date passes. Sellers of perishable inventory discount for real, because the alternative is zero.
An open-dated voucher, a subscription, a membership or a "book any time in the next year" offer is not perishable. Those discounts are marketing, priced to look generous against a reference price the seller chose.
Usually real
- Specific cruise sailings with dates attached, particularly shoulder-season and repositioning departures. Ships sail regardless; empty cabins earn nothing.
- Onboard credit and included extras on cruises. These cost the line far less than the equivalent fare cut and are frequently worth more to you than the headline discount.
- Hotel rates for named dates in low season.
- Airline sales on specific routes and travel windows — the restriction is the evidence that it is genuine.
- Luggage, boots and outdoor equipment. Ordinary retail, and the discounts are ordinary retail discounts, which is to say real.
Usually not
- "Up to 70% off" with no route, date or property named. The percentage applies to one obscure combination and the word doing the work is up to.
- Countdown timers. If the same offer is there on 2 December, the timer was decoration.
- Free cabin upgrades that move you from a grade the line struggles to sell into another grade it struggles to sell.
- Third and fourth passenger free, where the first two fares have been set to absorb it.
- Travel vouchers and credit with long expiry. These are a loan you make to the company at zero interest.
The ninety-second check that settles it. Before clicking, open the same sailing, route or property in a private browser window and price it without the promotion. Then compare the all-in totals, not the headline fares — including gratuities, baggage, resort fees and taxes. Most Black Friday travel offers do not survive this, and the ones that do are worth buying immediately.
The timing problem
Black Friday falls in late November, which is a genuinely awkward moment in the travel calendar.
- It is too late for Christmas. December inventory has been selling since summer. What is left in late November is what nobody wanted, at holiday prices.
- It is too early for the best summer deals. The cruise industry's real promotional season is wave season, which starts on 1 January and runs to March. That is when the lines compete against each other rather than against a date.
- It works well for January and February travel, which nobody else is buying in November and which are the two cheapest months to fly anyway.
What to actually do in late November
- Decide before the sale what trip you want. A discount on a trip you had not planned is not a saving.
- Price it now, in September or October, and write the number down. That is your reference price, not the seller's.
- Buy the equipment, not the trips — boots, luggage, coats — where the discounts are ordinary and honest.
- If a specific dated sailing you already wanted comes up with real money off, take it. That is what the sale is for.
- Otherwise wait for January. Wave season is a better market for cruises and the fares in January and February are lower than anything November will offer you.
The short version
- Real discounts attach to perishable, dated inventory. Vouchers and open-dated offers are marketing.
- Onboard credit is often worth more than the equivalent fare cut.
- Price the same thing in a private window and compare all-in totals. Ninety seconds.
- It is too late for Christmas and too early for summer.
- Wave season in January is the better cruise market.
- Buy the boots. Wait on the cruise.